Crystal balling the future of Telecoms..Billions will be made, some will win, some will lose

Whether you are an avid member of the Telco community or a user of a mobile phone, the world of telecoms has an impact on us all whether in the office or at home? It was very interesting to hear Tony Lavender reveal (in his capacity of heading up Ovum's global telecoms research programme) his view of the future. My money is on the service providers, who sit on top and have lots of opportunity for innovation. What do you think?

See report below of our sister company-Harvey Nash Executive Search.

'The future of communications event'

Report from the third in a series of talks by Tony Lavender, director of global telecoms research at Ovum, organised by the Executive Search Technology practice of Harvey Nash-Tony led the seminar over breakfast at the Lanesborough Hotel, attended by a select group of Senior Executives from the telecoms sector.

His talk covered a very wide range of issues facing the communications and media businesses in the immediate future.In particular he demonstrated the complexity of the developing market, encompassing devices, delivery channels, service providers, technology changes and the growing influence of content management.In particular the moves by traditional operators into content based services significantly changes their business models, but is almost essential to maintain reasonable margins.

He illustrated the threats of the new entrants e.g. Google, Yahoo, to the traditional operators, particularly in the content area.The battle for the 'connected home' between consumer electronics companies, telcos, satellite, cable and portals is an intriguing area.The role of devices and the influence of advertisers is still uncertain.

In the enterprise sector, large companies are increasingly looking for fully integrated fixed and mobile solutions, but SME's lack the knowledge to take advantage of new technology applications.However, major investments in Next Generation Networks by the major network providers are essential for maintaining margins, even if the shape of their future business is uncertain.However the size of this necessary investment risks recreating the historical monopoly situation - an issue yet to be addressed by regulators.

Finally the only certainty about the future structure of the industry is that it will be complex.Fewer core network providers needing major scale at the wholesale level, more MVNO's and niche providers at the retail level, and battles for the control of content.

Tony covered an extremely wide range of issues, illustrating key market development areas and the difficult decisions faced by the different players.The following discussion was wide ranging and generally confirmed the executives' concern about the decisions they face affecting the future of their various companies.