Jim O' Neill from Goldman Sachs (famous for coining the term BRIC countries to describe the next four big emerging markets) talked about the enormous growth we have seen and will continue to see from the BRIC countries. China alone will grow by the equivalent of the whole of the Greek economy, every four months.

These are no longer emerging markets; they are creating unparalleled consumption for UK goods and services. In addition, UK plc benefits hugely from this time zone and the English language. He told us of a billboard he had seen, in an out of the way place, in China and it read Success in English Equals Success in Life.

O’Neill now talks of the The Next 11, i.e. Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, , Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam and urges UK business to Export to Success.

Next Ernst & Young launched their review Missing a Trick on Exports with the same message: "Turn left into the country lane and austerity or turn right to the emerging markets and the Super Highway." This is the opportunity of a generation.

The big message was that UK Government is concerned about the Eurozone; is urging business to look at the new and emerging markets and is taking active steps to promote growth mainly through infrastructure investment.

80% of UK exports are into the Eurozone so we do not have much of a template to grow into these uncharted territories. Here at Impact Executives we have access to a huge number of interim management experts who have opened businesses in China, India, Nigeria, in fact most of the BRIC and Next 11 countries. You have to manage risk whilst at the same time break and enter new markets so using an expert, with a proven track record, will provide you with the successful outcome.

Interviewer: Alan, we have over 100 business leaders here at the London Hilton Hotel to hear you talk about the future of the UK workforce. Can you give a quick overview of what you'll be covering?

Alan Cook: First of all I'll be covering the recent results coming from the survey and what actually happened from the Harvey Nash survey itself, leading straight into the impact that the skills gap is creating within the UK industry with particular reference to the engineering and advanced manufacturing sector, an area that I've been involved with for the past 30 years.

Interviewer: And do you feel that the government is doing enough to create the skills to make the UK competitive in the future?

Alan Cook: If people are coming here this morning to listen to me complain about the lack of involvement from the government then they're at the wrong breakfast to be quite honest, because I do think that we have a joint responsibility; this is not down to the government at all, this is down to a number of people in a number of areas that really need to get their act together in a more coordinated manner.

Interviewer: What do you think is the one thing that the UK as a whole needs to focus on to be more competitive for the future?

Alan Cook: Obviously from my point of view I've been really banging on about the lack of skills or indeed the upskilling that we need in today's market; I mean let's be very clear about this, we are dealing with an international market now. I hesitate to use the work global because I think that is an overstatement, but we are dealing with an international market and international business. We have moved from high volume manufacturing into very specialised areas of manufacturing where we do have skills and we do have expertise; unfortunately unless we keep on investing in upskilling and providing the necessary methods of improving our workforce and the skills in the workforce, we will continue to actually decline in terms of our position, and let's be honest about this, manufacturing and advanced engineering is very important to the GDP of the UK.

Speaking exclusively for this blog, Lord Jones shares his predictions on the future of the economy and speaks frankly about the likelihood of a double dip recession.

Lord Jones: Hello, I’m Digby Jones and thanks for giving me some time. Here we are at the Harvey Nash annual conference in my home town of Birmingham and we‘re looking at survey results of the feelings of business men and women in this part of the world.

Firstly; optimism: Yes, better than a year ago but still a bit flaky. Then we’re looking at where your biggest threat is coming from in other markets: still China. But then interestingly where have they put investment of time and effort and risk in the last twelve months? Mainly India and China and a little bit of Eastern Europe.

And then we are looking at again at what government does. What are our political leaders doing about getting behind the wealth creators of our nation? And then yes the current government is having a better reaction in this audience than the opposition, but still not absolutely brilliant.

Of course there are some challenges at the moment which every businessman and woman understands, but could do with just a bit of a leg up. For instance the private sector must mop up these redundancies coming out of the private sector to re-balance the economy - so can someone explain to me why we have a tax on jobs? Employers’ national insurance contributions are the only tax in this nation that doesn’t tax income or capital gain (ie making money) but taxes the creation of a job. Are we mad?

For instance we have a government that says: “I believe in manufacturing strategy” and at the first whiff of gunshot what do they do? Go and buy German trains and not those made in Derby. That really helps doesn’t it - a government that knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. And then an opposition leader who stands up and says: “all you business men and women out there are, you’re at it. We don’t like you.” Well that really helps when you think that business is the only agent in our society that generates taxation. Because when you make money in a business you can either reward the shareholder; they pay tax on it, keep it in the business; you pay tax on it, or you employ people and they pay tax on it. So at the end of the day if you don’t have business you don’t have taxation.

So business and government, those who make the rules, I think business is entitled to have those who make the rules actually working alongside them and not against them. Is it better than a year ago? Yes. Are we going to see the sunlit uplands of growth over the next two or three years? Probably not. It’s probably going to bobble along and get a little bit better month by month. I’m not a double dip man but on the other hand, don’t go looking for some stupendous growth in the next couple of years.

It’s a time for cool heads; it’s a time for believing. It’s a time for investing in people. Get the best out of those you have; train them, skill them and take the risk: employ one more, because they will always be grateful; they will always support you, and at the same time you can maximise their talent and deliver the goods.

You will know of Lord Digby Jones, who in addition to his role as an active crossbencher in the House of Lords serves as Chairman of the International Business Advisory Board at HSBC, Chairman of the International Business Advisory Board at British Airways, Chairman of Triumph Motorcycles Limited, and is Corporate Ambassador for Jaguar Cars and JCB. He is also a senior Advisor to Harvey Nash.

His talk was titled "China wants your lunch, India your dinner"
His vision is for a UK that is totally open and globally engaged.
Two thirds of UK businesses see China as a threat; he sees it as an opportunity. He sees the Chinese open HSBC bank accounts, aspire to drive a Jaguar car and send their child to a UK university. His vision is to "help China gorge themselves on UK goods and services".

But he warns that to sell value added products and services into China we need a much better skill base. In the UK we need to see reforms on many other fronts and this can not be delivered without strong leadership.

Lord Jones speaks of the benefits of his independent role, though it can be lonely. (I hear our interim managers say the same, when they are a lone voice, delivering the bad but critical news, that no-one else in the organisation dare risks their career telling). For him Leadership is about going the extra mile, not about party politics but of the greater good and he believes that both Cameron and Clegg have had to put their personal ambitions aside to create the coalition.

A passion for leadership, to lead by example, to maximise the talent of the people we lead, and help them believe in themselves, is the best lesson to deliver change.

And finally an action plan of four words and use them often....

Please...treat others how you would like to be treated
Thank you....
Sorry...and mean it, use it early and use it right
And in the Lord’s inimitable style "Remember it is difficult to give a bxxxxxxg to a cheerful person".

Or is it? In our Business Review we wrote of Nassim Nicholas Taleb 'the new sage of Wall Street'. He wrote a book in 2001 entitled Fooled by Randomness and then the now famous The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, his theory of black swan events has become one of the most appealing guides to the crisis in market capitalism. A 'black swan' was the medieval metaphor for something that could not exist, but when black swans were discovered in the 17th century, the term became a metaphor for a perceived impossibility. In Taleb's view, unpredictable and seemingly unusual 'black swan' events such as 9/11, the dotcom bubble and the current financial implosion, are more predictable than we think. "You can take advantage of uncertainty if you know how to look it in the eye," he concludes.

Some business leaders have already come out in support of the budget as they see an opportunity to take the advantage. James Dyson has welcomed the increase in tax credits on research and development (R&D) for small firms as Osborne confirmed the Patent Box which reduces corporation tax to 10% on income from patents. The Chancellor also promised a three year tax exemption from the controlled foreign companies' regime for companies moving back to Britain so today Sir Martin Sorrell has announced he is thinking of bringing WPP back to Britain and United Business Media could join them and return from Dublin.

These are speedy responses and that is the point. In these uncertain times one has to respond effectively and efficiently to gain the advantage. These photos say it all, The Great Kanto Highway in Japan was demolished on 11th March and was open to vehicles on 23rd March. A reconstruction bounce may indeed be the reality for Japan.

But there are lessons for us all. Faced with the worst, the way we respond shows our mettle. Our interim managers show exceptional mettle as they deliver transition, transformation and change. They enter politically charged situations, bring order to chaos and deliver results every time. In the interim management world one is only as good as one's last assignment. Change and Deliver.

Change has to be personal before it can be organisational... and inevitably this will lead to massive tensions. Without wanting to trivialize what is happening in the Middle East, this is true in business too. In all our lives there are defining moments that transform our lives, usually they are about points of principle, values and beliefs. I believe it is these defining moments that bring about change for a nation, a business and for individuals.

Without a doubt this is a defining moment in the Middle East, not only are we seeing thousands of protestors taking a very personal stand to deliver massive change but it seems that change is infectious. What started in Tunisia was followed by the Egyptians and then Yemen, Iraq, Libya and Bahrain. Last week the BBC reported that thousands of Iranian opposition supporters took to the streets of Tehran on Monday to protest against the country's leadership and show support for the popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.

Defining moments may look like rebellion to managers and for sure the leaders in the Middle East will see it that way. But in business we need these moments to re-evaluate, to establish new responses, and to work differently to ensure our business survival.

We can then enter the recovery phase, design the new and then move into the transformed organisation.

But beware, in business 85% of change projects fail, at an average cost of £15million (Dr. Nigel MacLennan) and no-one plans to fail so how does one manage the risks and avoid failure?

It is about the personal change; to deliver successful change programmes our interim managers are attuned to the personal change that folk have to undertake. At Impact Executives we call that Transition Management.

Shell International has long recognised the importance of transition management. They see a clear distinction between organisational change and the transition that affects individual staff and managers. Their people are encouraged to plan their careers and develop skills to manage periods of uncertainty and frequent organisational change. (Dai Williams, www.eoslifework.co.uk)

Change is now business as usual, in as much as every day in our businesses we face new challenges and we have to affect a positive response and change accordingly.

But remember to manage the personal transition and invest in expertise to avoid the 85% failure rate. Be realistic about the extent to which you can manage the transition yourself or whether you need interim management experts to ensure you win.

Never Eat Alone by Keith Ferazzi and Tahl Raz is a glimpse into how those with no particular contacts can connect to those they want to meet. For many people who are good at connecting, this activity becomes a way of life. It's a profession and a hobby.

This book draws a distinction between the activities of a "hyper-Rolodex-builder and business card counter who fails to grasp the nuances of authentic connecting and a true connector". To help make this distinction, Ferazzi discusses openly his own networking mistakes as well as his relationship building successes. Through the book, he reveals the strategy he uses to effectively reach out to connect with his impressive list of friends, associates, and contacts.

For a more detailed review, click on the link below: http://impactexecutives.com/pdf/book-reviews/never-eat-alone.pdf

So remember, keep connecting to maximise your network and the benefits it can bring to you and your business.

If you are looking for ways to innovate, achieve breakthrough success and need expert help; please call us for an Interim Manager who will provide the right solution, right now.

As late as Tuesday 26th October the Head of the Eurozone's Stabilisation Fund announced that the worst of the crisis in Europe is over. Within weeks the accelerated rescue of Ireland was inevitable as Germany stands to lose €109bn (4.5% of GDP) the UK €100bn (7% GDP) and France €40bn (2%GDP).

Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, Portugal's Finance Minister, said on Sunday: "The fact that Ireland can have a significant aid plan alleviates concerns, reduces uncertainty and reinforces market confidence."

Portugal has denied it has plans to request foreign aid, seeing its situation as very different from Ireland because its deficit and debt are lower, its banks do not face the same problems and it has no property bubble. This may all be true. But did we not hear similar from Ireland just last week when they were still declaring that they did not need a bail-out. Only to hear on Thursday that a hastily arranged visit and negotiations had begun on the terms of a rescue.

The Irish continue to hold out for their 12.5% Corporation Tax as the cornerstone of its industrial policy. Whatever the terms of the bail-out one thing is sure that a new tax regime and reduced public sector spending cuts alone will not maintain solvency.

This will require a return to solid growth. Of course, we all know that if growth is not going to come from within the Eurozone then we had better look elsewhere. Lord Digby Jones told a conference for Harvey Nash plc that sales of Jaguar cars in China have for the first time outstripped demand in the US which is traditionally their biggest market.

So perhaps Europe would be better off developing policy and growth strategies that allow European countries to compete against other economies rather than implement restrictive practices that will inevitably lead nowhere.

We are finding within Impact Executives that our most forward thinking (and yes successful clients) are coming to us now for interim Business Development and Sales & Marketing experts to open up new markets. These are the organisations large or small that are most fleet of foot and entrepreneurial. They know there is no time to lose and they need the right solution - right now.

In the news today we see increased coverage about new and ever more challenging security threats. Yesterday it was air cargo and the PETN explosive that was not picked up on the initial checks. Prior to that, the emergence of malware such as the Stuxnet worm designed by Israeli experts to attack the control system for Iran's nuclear power plant.

We are all accustomed to removing our shoes, belts, jackets at airport security. In the United States, airline passengers have grown accustomed to not only having their luggage and laptops searched but even being X-rayed as they pass through airport security. One major complaint is that there are no standardised procedures within UK airports, let alone international standardisation.

Lord Carlisle the independent reviewer of counter-terrorism laws said  that the failure of existing equipment to pick up the PETN was a weakness and checks should be made to make sure the most up to date equipment is in use. This all seems a little obvious in a horse - bolted sort of way.

But are we any better prepared within our businesses?

Computer-initiated threats have rocketed up the government's list of threats to national security, according to reports released ahead of the publication of a new review of national security strategy.

Read more here:

http://www.computerweekly.com/Articles/2010/10/18/243380/Cyber-threats-top-national-security-concerns.htm

In the previous review published in June 2009, cyber threats ranked below climate change, terrorism, failed states and the banking crisis. Terrorism and cyber threats are now seen as the leading risks to national security.

"Cyber space is increasingly vital for our prosperity and our way of life," a special report on cyber security commissioned by the Brown government said in June last year. "But cyber space is also a domain in which hostile states, terrorists, and criminals can operate, putting the interests of businesses and citizens at risk."

It suggested computers were involved in identity theft, crime and disruption that cost the world economy more than £1 trillion a year.

The UK government has already gone on the offensive with a campaign to identify and hire suitable 'white hat' hackers and setting up the Cyber Security Operations Centre at GCHQ in Cheltenham to co-ordinate threat information and responses.

Are you sure that in your business your firewalls and crisis management plans are fit for purpose in this new world of potential cyber attack?  If you have any uncertainty at all, call us for leading edge interim security experts to shore up your systems and ensure your business is safe.